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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."