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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.